DELIMITATION AND SOUTHERN STATES: REPRESENTATION AT RISK?

Ritik Agrawal
1 day ago
6 min read

Map of India with large red text "DELIMITATION?" and smaller text "WHAT IS" and "AND IS IT A THREAT TO INDIA'S FEDERAL STRUCTURE?" on a gray background.

INTRODUCTION

The ongoing debate around the readjustment of Lok Sabha seats following the new census is being widely misrepresented as delimitation in public discourse. Delimitation refers to the process of redrawing the boundaries of Parliament and State Legislative Assembly constituencies to ensure equal representation based on population changes. It also involves fixing the seats allocated to each state in the Lok Sabha and State Assemblies as the nation approaches the scheduled to lifting of current freeze on delimitation after 2026. The freeze was originally imposed to incentivize population control, but the issue has reignited a complex debate. The Southern States, which have histroically invested in health, education and family planning programs now face the paradox of potentially losing political representation in Parliament due to their demographic achievement. In contrast, Northern states with higher population growth stand to gain larger shares in seats. This redistribution of power has raised critical questions about equity, federalism and the nature of India democracy. Should the representation be solely based on population, or should performance in governance also be factored in? Are we, as a nation punishing the States for doing well? And most importantly, what does this means for the unity and balance of Indian federation? This article seeks to explore this questions, examine the historical, constitutional, political, and socio-economic dimentions of dilimitation and its potentially disruptive impact on the representation of Southern States in India.

HISTORICAL BACKGROUND

India has conducted dilimitation exercise four times since independence in 1952, 1963, 1973, and 2002. Each was based on the lastest decennial census, aimed at redrawing constituency boundaries to match demographic shifts.

· From 1951 to 1971, the number of Lok Sabha seats increased from 489 to 543 in response to the population growth. The population per Lok Sabha seat rose from 3 lakh in 1951 to 10.1 lakh in 1971, when the number of seats reached 543.

· In 1976, during the Emergency, the 42nd Constitutional Amendment introduced a freeze on the allocation of Parliamentary and State Legislative Assembly seats regardless of population changes. This moves aimed to encourage population control and prevent states with high population growth rate from gaining an electoral advantage.

· This freeze was further extended by 84th Constitutional Amendment in 2001, pushing the moratorium to 2026. While the number of seats remains constant, the boundaries of constituencies were redrawn in 2002 to the changes in population within the state but crucially, the total seats allocation among state remains unchanged.

CONSTITUTIONAL PROVISIONS

1. Article 82, of the Indian Constitution empowers Parliament to enact a law for the readjustment of constituencies after every decennial census. This readjustment includes:

· Allocation of seats to each state in Lok Sabha.

· Division of each state into territorial constituencies.

2. Article 170, Provide for a similar delimitation exercise for the State Legislative Assembly.

WHAT IS THE ISSUE?

Over the past 50 years, India has experienced a significant population surge, but this growth has not been uniform across the country. States in the North such as Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan have seen a much steeper rise in population compared to their Southern counterparts like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and Andhra Pradesh, where population growth has remained relatively controlled. In light of this disparity, two main approaches are currently under discussion regarding how the upcoming delimitation process should be carried out.There are two main proposals under discussion regarding the upcoming delimitation process. One option is to maintain the current total of 543 Lok Sabha seats and redistribute them among the States. The other, more significant option, involves expanding the total number of seats to 848, with seats being proportionally allocated to each State based on certain criteria. Union Home Minister Amit Shah recently mentioned that no State would face a reduction in its seat count; instead, the increase would be applied uniformly or ‘pro-rata’ across all States, including those in the South. However, it remains unclear whether this proportional allocation will be determined by the existing seat distribution or by projected population figures.

If the proposed increase in seats follows the population projections, it could result in Southern states as well as smaller northern and northeastern states like Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and those in the Northeast being relatively disadvantaged. This approach could undermine the spirit of federalism, which is a cornerstone of India’s constitutional framework. It may foster resentment among States that have successfully implemented population control measures, as they risk losing proportional representation and, consequently, political influence. For instance, the Southern states, which currently account for 24% of Lok Sabha seats, could see their share drop by approximately 5%.

THE IMPACT OF DELIMITATION IN SOUTHERN STATES

1. Loss of Parliamentary Influence

One of the most immediate consequences of the upcoming delimitation is the potential loss of parliamentary influence for Southern states like Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, and Andhra Pradesh. They where successfully implemented the population control programs and reduced their population growth rates through early investments in education, healthcare, and family planning.

However, since delimitation is primarily based on population size, they may see little to no increase in Lok Sabha seats, or even a relative reduction in their share. In contrast, Northern states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, who fails to implement population control programs and with high population growth rate are likely to gain more number of Lok sabha seats.

In result, the South’s parliamentary representation could drop from 24 per cent to 19 per cent, while Hindi-speaking states could see an increase of about 60 per cent. Which reduced their political influence. This imbalance could significantly alter the composition of Parliament, skewing legislative power toward the North and diminishing the collective voice of the South in national policymaking and this decline in proportional representation for Sothern states could undermine the federal structure and create regional imbalances.

2. Policy and Fiscal Imbalance

The reduced numerical strength in the Lok Sabha, Southern states may find themselves increasingly sidelined in national policy debates and issues that are regionally significant may receive less attention. Instead, political agendas may shift toward the socio-economic concerns of the more populous Northern states. This could result in a national policy landscape that does not reflect the diverse developmental needs of the entire country.

Southern states like Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and Maharashtra are among India’s highest tax-contributing states but receive only 30 per cent of their contributions in return. In contrast, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh receive 250-350 per cent more than what they contribute. A decline in parliamentary representation may weaken their ability to negotiate for a fair share of national resources. Such imbalances risk undermining the fiscal federal structure by failing to reward efficiency and development, thereby discouraging states from pursuing long-term, sustainable growth policies.

3. Undermiming of Good Governance Incentives

Perhaps the most concerning long-term impact is the erosion of incentives for good governance. Southern states embraced population control measures as part of their development strategies, often at significant political cost. If these efforts now result in reduced representation, it sets a dangerous precedent.

States that manage population growth effectively may conclude that their efforts are politically disadvantageous. This could discourage other regions from implementing similar reforms, ultimately harming national progress. A democratic system that penalizes effective governance in favor of sheer population numbers risks weakening the very foundations of federal cooperation and development.

CONCLUSION

Delimitation is fundamentally a democratic mechanism designed to maintain fair and equal representation. In a representative democracy, governance is based on the will of the people, guided by the foundational concept of "one person, one vote, one value." However, this ideal has been deliberately adjusted since 1976, when delimitation was postponed in order to encourage population control, thereby weakening uniform representation.

In comparison, countries like the United States offer a different model. For instance, the U.S. House of Representatives has maintained a fixed strength of 435 seats since 1913, despite the population increasing nearly fourfold from approximately 94 million in 1911 to an estimated 340 million in 2024. Similarly, India has continued with 543 members in the Lok Sabha for about 50 years, even as its population has surged from 550 million to nearly 1.45 billion. Projections indicate that India's population may peak at around 1.65 to 1.70 billion in the next 30 years before it begins to decline.

So, there is a strong case for maintaining the existing strength of the Lok Sabha to preserve inter-state balance and safeguard federal values. Retaining the current number of seats would help avoid disruptions in the distribution of political power among States. The leaders and Members of Parliament from the Southern States, smaller Northern States, and the Northeast should collectively advocate in Parliament for such a cap, as it would protect the political standing of their respective regions. Meanwhile, to address concerns around adequate representation at the State level, the number of MLAs in State Assemblies could be revised upward based on population projections.The failure to conduct the delimitation exercise is, in fact, undermining the fundamental principles of democracy, as it results in inadequate representation of the country's population. Although this inaction may serve to maintain the federal balance and protect the political interests of individual states, it ultimately compromises the democratic ideal of equitable representation.